Pentagon Isn't Relaxing Its Defense Prep for North Korea

So far, North Korea hasn't launched a missile as expected to celebrate its founder's birthday. But that doesn't change the U.S. military's posture on and near the Korean peninsula.
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A ground-based interceptor gets lowered into an underground silo at Fort Greely, Alaska, December 2006. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently ordered more interceptors to Alaska to hedge against a possible North Korean launch in the future. Photo: U.S. Missile Defense AgencyA ground-based interceptor gets lowered into an underground silo at Fort Greely, Alaska, December 2006. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently ordered more interceptors to Alaska to hedge against a possible North Korean launch in the future. Photo: U.S. Missile Defense Agency

It's after midnight in Pyongyang, and North Korea hasn't conducted the missile launch that many anticipated would commemorate founder Kim Il-sung's birthday today. That's not at all affecting the Pentagon's defense preparations during this renewed period of tension with the North.

Missile launch or no, the Pentagon isn't about to send home the planes, ships and missile-defense systems it's ordered to or near the Korean peninsula. Pentagon officials emphasize that they can't predict North Korea's behavior. They say they don't want to read much into leader Kim Jong-un's apparent decision not to celebrate his grandfather's birthday by shooting a Musudan medium-range missile, believed to be capable of reaching Guam -- which, ironically, might have represented a way to tamp down hostilities.

"North Korea poses a ballistic missile threat," says Army Lt. Col. Cathy Wilkinson, a Pentagon spokeswoman. "We stand ready to defend ourselves, our allies and our national interests against that threat."

The last several weeks have seen a flurry of U.S. military movements related to tensions with North Korea. F-22 Raptor stealth jets and B-2 and B-52 bombers joined a U.S.-South Korean military exercise earlier this month. Adm. Samuel Locklear, the U.S. military commander for Asia and the Pacific, told Congress last week that anti-missile ships and land-based interceptors are capable of shooting down a North Korean missile. Those systems include a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery recently deployed to Guam; and a powerful, sea-based X-band radar the Pentagon says is currently in position near North Korea, all of which supplement a land-based X-band radar detection system in northern Japan (a second, announced last fall, is on its way to southern Japan). And that's on top of 14 additional long-range missile interceptors that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently ordered deployed to Alaska.

The Pentagon has not cut short or reversed any of those plans, which Wilkinson called "prudent decisions." No one wants to predict that North Korea won't conduct a missile launch imminently just because Kim Il-sung's birthday has come and gone. Pyongyang moved missiles to an eastern launch pad about a week ago, and Pentagon officials say they haven't seen any significant military de-escalations from North Korea

Ironically, a missile launch that plopped into the Pacific Ocean without hurting anyone would likely be seen as Kim Jong-un ratcheting tensions down. Senior U.S. military officers have expressed concern for weeks that Kim has not given himself a face-saving way of climbing down from his recent bellicose rhetoric, which has included formally nullifying North Korea's armistice with South Korea and threatening to nuke its adversary in Seoul. A former top CIA Korea analyst, Sue Mi Terry, recently told Danger Room she expects some form of northern attack on South Korea before the current crisis abates.

North Korea does not have missiles capable of striking the U.S. homeland. But the Pentagon's intelligence arm recently assessed with "moderate confidence" that Pyongyang has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead to fit on its missiles, which helps explain the accelerated U.S. missile-defense responses. The Daily Beast's Eli Lake reports today that recovered wreckage from a December medium-range rocket launch contributed to that assessment.

Secretary of State John Kerry told North Korea this weekend that the Obama administration was willing to reopen dialogue with North Korea provided Pyongyang first take clear steps to roll back its nuclear program. But now, with Kim Il-sung's birthday having come and gone without a missile launch, the U.S. is still waiting to see if his grandson will take any steps to dial back the crisis.

"We've seen the press reports that North Korea may be making preparations to launch a missile and won't be surprised if they take this action again," Wilkinson says. "We are monitoring the situation very closely and are coordinating with South Korean officials and military commanders, as well as with Japan, China, Russia and other partners in the international community."