The Scariest Threats to Uber's Future, From Waymo to Money Worries

Lawsuits, criminal investigations, and a toxic corporate culture. Can the ride-hail giant survive?
Travis Kalanick CEO of Uber Technologies Inc.
Travis Kalanick, CEO of Uber Technologies, Inc.Marlene Awaad/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Editor's Note: This story was originally published on May 9, 2017. It has been updated to reflect developments including Uber's firing of 20 employees following an internal investigation into its corporate culture, as well as self-driving engineer Anthony Levandowski.

If you haven’t heard (maybe you’ve been toiling in Elon’s tunnels?), Uber has had a rough start to 2017. The Department of Justice has launched a criminal probe into the company’s use of “Greyball,” a system it used to identify regulatory officials and block them from booking rides. In January, it lost riders who objected to CEO Travis Kalanick’s (soon abandoned) seat on President Trump’s economic council.

In late February, former Uber engineer Susan Fowler published an explosive blog post, accusing Uber of fostering a misogynistic corporate culture. A few days later, Google autonomous driving spinoff Waymo filed a lawsuit alleging Uber boosted its self-driving program by stealing Waymo's trade secrets.

And this week, Uber canned at least 20 employees following an internal probe into the harassment probe---with the results of an external probe to come next week. A half dozen high-level executives have left since February. Meanwhile, financial records show the company burning cash at eye-popping rates, while profitability remains elusive.

In a mess like this, it’s hard to know which problems everyone might soon forget and which could hurt the company's fortunes. To guide you, we’ve rounded up the latest fires, ranked by the likelihood they’ll be the one to scorch the house Travis built.

1. Waymo Attacks

On February 23, Waymo, Google’s self-driving car spinoff, filed a lawsuit against Uber. It alleged former employee Anthony Levandowski illicitly downloaded 14,000 technical documents, including the blueprints for its lidar sensor, technology considered essential for a fully autonomous vehicle. Waymo says Levandowski, who resigned in January 2016, used that info to cofound Otto, an autonomous-truck outfit, that same month. Uber then acquired Otto in August 2016 for nearly $700 million and put Levandowski in charge of efforts to develop fully autonomous cars. (Uber calls the suit “a baseless attempt to slow down a competitor.”)

Kalanick has said autonomous vehicles are crucial to Uber’s long-term future: If another company gets there first, it could provide a far cheaper rival service by cutting out the human drivers who take a cut of the fares. Judge William Alsup cut the company a temporary break in May and denied Waymo’s request to ban Uber from using any ill-gotten info to develop its tech until the case is resolved. But he barred Levandowski from lidar work—and then Uber fired him this month, citing his noncompliance with their legal team. Uber’s next big date in court is set for October.

Best-Case Scenario: Uber wins the case and powers on with its self-driving project.

Worst Case: Waymo uncovers evidence that Uber used stolen tech in its autonomous vehicle development, leading to a big loss in court. If it does lose, Uber could have to sit out the self-driving race until Waymo has gained back its lead, and/or pay out millions in damages. Meanwhile, Judge Alsup has referred the trade secrets case to the Department of Justice. A criminal investigation could follow, putting Levandowski and other non-fired Uber executives at risk of landing in prison, says Shawn Thompson, a former FBI attorney and federal prosecutor.

2. The Greyball Investigation

In March, The New York Times revealed that Uber had for years been using a program called Greyball, which allowed Uber to keep users who might be working for regulators or law enforcement from using its service. Greyball's purpose: to help Uber avoid detection in cities that prohibited it from operating. Uber admitted to using the program, and now the Department of Justice has opened a criminal probe. (Uber declined to comment on the DOJ investigation.)

If prosecutors determine Uber illegally obstructed authorities from enforcing laws or improperly used credit card information (the company allegedly used credit card data as part of its effort to identify users it was trying to sideline), they could file racketeering charges. But the investigation could also prove benign. “This [kind of investigation] happens a lot, particularly when there are big, high-profile companies and articles about things they’ve done that offend people,” says Timothy Heaphy, a former US attorney now at the law firm Hunton & Williams.

Best Case: Federal prosecutors conclude their investigation without finding proof Uber did anything wrong.

Worst Case: Conviction under these federal charges could result in significant fines, further hurting Uber's financial situation.

3. Setting Fire to Cash

Uber generated more than $6.5 billion in revenue in 2016, according to numbers it shared with Bloomberg. Sounds good, right? Problem is, Uber lost nearly twice what it did in 2015, ending the year $2.8 billion in the red. The good news for the company is that its revenue growth could outpace losses soon.

“I figure they have something like one and a half, two and a half years’ of cash they could continue to burn at the current rate,” says Evan Rawley, who teaches strategy at Columbia University Business School. If the company wants to avoid taking a valuation hit, expect fares to increase and driver profits to dip, especially in markets where competitors (cough, Lyft) are trailing badly.

Best Case: Uber beats back competitors, its revenue increases enough to outweigh heavy losses, and the whole thing starts turning a profit, justifying its valuation of nearly $70 billion.

Worst Case: Uber continues to subsidize fares to lure in new users and drivers, pushing profitability further away. The Waymo and Greyball cases could pile on financial penalties, making the situation worse. If the company loses too much cash, it’ll have to raise money again, diluting shareholders' equity. Longtime investors could revolt, Rawley says, leading to a change up top---bye-bye, Travis K?---and an unstable future.

4. Toxic Culture

In February, Susan Fowler, a former programmer at Uber, published a blog post saying she had been sexually harassed and discriminated against while at the company. And, she said, her complaints went unheard in a corporate culture that values performance above all. In response, Kalanick tweeted, "What's described here is abhorrent & against everything we believe in." An internal investigation followed, turning up 215 claims of inappropriate behavior and leading Uber this week to fire those 20 employees.

Uber has also brought in former US attorney general Eric Holder to do his own independent assessment. His report is due at the end of June. Meanwhile, Uber’s recent diversity report showed progress, at least compared to the rest of Silicon Valley.

Also this week, Uber fired Asia Pacific business head Eric Alexander, who stands accused of obtaining and holding onto the medical files of a woman raped during an Uber ride in India. (Uber reportedly feared the rape was a fabrication by a competitor.)

Best Case: Uber commits to improvement, continuing to punish bad actors and working to diversify the workplace---even before reporters force their hands. Kalanick brings in a conscientious and thoughtful person to be his first COO and balance out his company's “ask forgiveness, not permission” tendencies.

Worst Case: It doesn’t, and he doesn’t. Bad PR translates into a rekindling of the #deleteUber campaign and the departure of good workers, or the inability to hire new ones---from entry to executive level. “Nobody likes a sexist organization that abuses its employees,” Robert Siegel, who studies strategy and innovation at Stanford Business School, told WIRED in March. Well, duh.

5. An Executive Exodus

Kalanick is working on that COO slot, but he’s got other roles to fill as well. In March, Jeff Jones, Uber’s president, resigned. “The beliefs and approach to leadership that have guided my career are inconsistent with what I saw and experienced at Uber,” he told Recode at the time. High-ranking exec Brian McClendon, self-driving director Raffi Krikorian, senior exec Ed Baker, and Rachel Whetstone also all left around the same time. Now head of finance Gautam Gupta is on his way out, not to mention Alexander and Levandowski, both fired.

“Uber was the hottest firm in the world,” says Rawley. “I think the ardor has probably cooled in some quarters.” An executive-level job would still be a golden ticket for most tech strivers. But given departures, firings, bad PR, and rumors of a truly terrible work environment, the company may not be able to catch the cream. “It’s not an ideal job for someone who has got a lot of talent and a good job already, which is what they need,” says Rawley. Then again, Uber just hired artificial intelligence superstar Raquel Urtasun to work on its autonomous-driving efforts.

Best Case: Uber uses the company’s great product, well-established customer base, and unique challenges to find excellent people and get the company back on track.

Worst Case: Culture starts at the top. If Uber doesn’t add to its roster, the environment won’t shift, jobs will go unfilled, and money won’t be made. Without cash, it’s going to be really hard for the company to right the tailspin.